During the Playoffs, the Group Stage awaits 304 teams across 5 age groups. These teams reach these playoffs by dominating their respective conferences "back home". Can they replicate their regular season winning performances in California? Here's some data:
Here are takeaways:
- Group Stage winners delivered results that were "very similar" to their aggregate performances during the regular season. Nonetheless, the data suggests that their offensive capabilities were somewhat-impaired by the relatively-stronger competition (ie: GF-G dropped by 0.20).
- Group Stage participants - excluding the winners - delivered significantly-weaker results vs. their regular season:
- They scored ≈1 less goal per-game
- They conceded 1+ more goal per-game
- ... which yielded underwhelming goal differentials.
Does this data support the narrative that "... the strongest teams probably won their group stages..."? There are some nuances at-play, but from a narrow perspective:
- Teams that "replicate" their regional regular-season winning performances inside group stages populated with nationwide opponents deserve a trip to the knockout rounds.
In next week's episode, let's dive-deeper into this data, and consider age group variations.
Richard - from SoccerAnalytix