In some ways, the ECNL Playoffs and FIFA World Cup format puzzle (48 or 64 teams, etc.) spawns from a similar dilemma: how do you "funnel" 100+ ranked teams that initially-compete within distinct geographical areas... into a single event? Consider this:
In this post, let's consider:
From recent history:
From the above:
We analyzed recent historical data from ECNL Boys Playoffs/Finals. In the last 2 seasons (2023-24 & 2024-25) - across 5 age groups combined (U13-U17) - the following % of teams were also Top 16* ranked nationwide during the regular season:
- 47% of teams making it to the Round-of-16
- 60% of National Champions
- * -> see notes in chart above for description of how rankings were calculated.
We compared the above ECNL data to its equivalent in the previous 3 FIFA World Cups. In the worldwide event, the following % of teams were also Top 16 ranked worldwide:
- 65% of teams making it to the Round-of-16
- 100% of World Cup Champions.
Let's add this:
- In both tournaments:
- Top 16 teams - inside their respective 100+ team ranking system - are significantly-represented within the knockout round population.
- There's evidence that the format is flexible-enough to provide an opportunity for somewhat-unexpected breakout performances to occur.
- Compared to the FIFA World Cup, the ECNL Playoffs/Finals format yields a larger % of Other-Than-Top-16 teams moving-forward into its tournament. 2 reasons:
- 1) Without going too deep into the math, this tournament captures performances across 14 distinct regions, which is 2X+ regions than what FIFA integrates on its side. By pulling-in "a few top teams" from each of these 14 different regions, you introduce the possibility of including stronger-than-expected teams that were not seeded as Top 16 nationwide.
- 2) A focus for this tournament is player development and visibility. Therefore - by design - there's an implicit bias towards higher team count.
On that 2nd point - some of the available data suggests that this bias actually increases levels of competitiveness inside the ECNL Playoffs/Finals. Consider this data below, which goes-further into describing from "where" in the rankings do winners come from:
Arguably - a fairly-sizable % of winning teams bubbles-up from deep inside the rankings. That's good!
Summary
In the last 3 FIFA World Cups, 100% of winners were previously-ranked within the Top 16 Worldwide rankings. In recent ECNL Boys Finals, 60% of National Champions were previously-ranked within the Top 16 Nationwide rankings. From a certain perspective, that 60% reflects - in relative terms - a good level of competitiveness within ECNL's tournament format.
Richard - from SoccerAnalytix